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Ústí nad Labem vs Viktoria Žižkov — FNL 2019

Ústí nad Labem
Ústí nad Labem
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Viktoria Žižkov
Viktoria Žižkov
4/24/2026FNLFNL · Round 25Town Stadium Usti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ústí nad Labem45%
×Draw25%
Viktoria Žižkov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ústí nad Labem
1.60
Viktoria Žižkov
1.25

Ústí nad Labem creates 28% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 88 away

creates per match

Ústí nad Labem
1.38
Viktoria Žižkov
1.30

allows per match

Ústí nad Labem
1.19
Viktoria Žižkov
1.82

finishing

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par
Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Labem ↓

Viktoria Žižkov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ústí nad Labem or draw
70%
Ústí nad Labem or Viktoria Žižkov
75%
Draw or Viktoria Žižkov
55%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+
23%
Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals
80%
Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals
47%
Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals
22%
Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals
71%
Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals
36%
Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)
60%
Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Labem at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

Viktoria Žižkov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.82 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.38 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.30 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ústí nad Labem scores more
45%
level
25%
Viktoria Žižkov scores more
30%

Ústí nad Labem at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Ústí nad Labem 3–0 Viktoria Žižkov

Ústí nad Labem beat Viktoria Žižkov 3-0 in FNL on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Town Stadium Usti in Usti nad Labem.