Viktoria Otrokovice 0–1 Start Brno: Result & Stats

Viktoria Otrokovice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Start Brno

M. Hladky 45+1'

3/10/2024

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 18Hrište Sigma Lutin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice41%

×Draw23%

Start Brno36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria OtrokoviceExpected goals in this matchStart Brno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.58

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.69

Start Brno

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 33 away

1.63

creates per match

1.39

1.77

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.63

Start Brno

1.39

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.77

Start Brno

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Start Brno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw

64%

Viktoria Otrokovice or Start Brno

77%

Draw or Start Brno

59%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

21%

Start Brno wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

82%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

50%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

24%

Start Brno 1+ goals

79%

Start Brno 2+ goals

47%

Start Brno 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

53%

Start Brno (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.77 · 65 matches

Start Brno away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.63 + Start Brno defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Start Brno attack 1.39 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

41%

level

23%

Start Brno scores more

36%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

T. Slovak

45+1'

M. Hladky

52'

G. S. Dano

54'

M. Hladky

61'

O. Vintr← D. Frebort

73'

O. Pernatskyi

78'

L. Vychodil← L. Vychodil

83'

M. Drenka← M. Drenka

89'

M. Brezina← M. Brezina

89'

M. Krakovcik

90+1'

M. Zikl← T. Brzobohaty

90+3'

V. Waclawik← V. Waclawik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff