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Start Brno vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Start Brno
Start Brno
FT
0 – 3
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
8/4/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 1Hřiště Loosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Start Brno37%
×Draw24%
Viktoria Otrokovice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start Brno
1.54
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Start Brno
1.09
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.39

allows per match

Start Brno
1.82
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.00

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw
61%
Start Brno or Viktoria Otrokovice
76%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
63%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+
18%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals
79%
Start Brno 2+ goals
45%
Start Brno 3+ goals
20%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
80%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
47%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)
48%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.00 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 1.09 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.39 + Start Brno defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Start Brno scores more
37%
level
24%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
39%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Start Brno 0–3 Viktoria Otrokovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Start Brno 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště Loosova in Brno.