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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Hodonín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hodonín
Hodonín
8/25/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 4Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice35%
×Draw23%
Hodonín42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.60
Hodonín
1.76

Hodonín creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.62
Hodonín
1.75

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.77
Hodonín
1.57

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Hodonín+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Hodonín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
58%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Hodonín
77%
Draw or Hodonín
65%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
17%
Hodonín wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
80%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
47%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
22%
Hodonín 1+ goals
83%
Hodonín 2+ goals
52%
Hodonín 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
46%
Hodonín (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Hodonín away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Hodonín defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hodonín attack 1.75 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
35%
level
23%
Hodonín scores more
42%

Hodonín at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Viktoria Otrokovice 0–0 Hodonín

Viktoria Otrokovice and Hodonín drew 0-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.