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Hodonín vs Viktoria Otrokovice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hodonín
Hodonín
FT
3 – 3
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
5/28/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hodonín37%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Otrokovice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodonín
1.85
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hodonín
1.50
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.43

allows per match

Hodonín
1.50
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.21

finishing

Hodonín+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodonín ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hodonín or draw
58%
Hodonín or Viktoria Otrokovice
79%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
63%

Winning margin

Hodonín wins by 2+
19%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hodonín 1+ goals
84%
Hodonín 2+ goals
55%
Hodonín 3+ goals
28%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
86%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
58%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hodonín (draw refunded)
47%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodonín at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 2.43, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodonín attack 1.50 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 2.43 + Hodonín defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hodonín scores more
37%
level
21%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
42%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Hodonín 3–3 Viktoria Otrokovice

Hodonín and Viktoria Otrokovice drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on May 28, 2021.