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Hodonín vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hodonín
Hodonín
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
3/29/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 21Stadion u Červených domků

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hodonín52%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Otrokovice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodonín
1.86
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.22

Hodonín creates 52% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hodonín
1.73
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Hodonín
1.06
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Hodonín+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodonín ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hodonín or draw
75%
Hodonín or Viktoria Otrokovice
77%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
48%

Winning margin

Hodonín wins by 2+
29%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hodonín 1+ goals
84%
Hodonín 2+ goals
55%
Hodonín 3+ goals
28%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
70%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
34%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hodonín (draw refunded)
68%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodonín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodonín attack 1.73 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.86

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Hodonín defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hodonín scores more
52%
level
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
25%

Hodonín at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hodonín vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Hodonín and Viktoria Otrokovice drew 0-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Červených domků in Hodonín.