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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Hanácká — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hanácká
Hanácká
O. Pernatskyi 82', 44'
M. Votava 54'
4/1/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 22Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice29%
×Draw22%
Hanácká48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.44
Hanácká
1.90

Hanácká creates 32% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 52 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.64
Hanácká
2.04

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.75
Hanácká
1.25

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Hanácká+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Hanácká →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
52%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Hanácká
78%
Draw or Hanácká
71%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
13%
Hanácká wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
76%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
42%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
18%
Hanácká 1+ goals
85%
Hanácká 2+ goals
56%
Hanácká 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
38%
Hanácká (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.75 · 64 matches

Hanácká away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.25 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.64 + Hanácká defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hanácká attack 2.04 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
29%
level
22%
Hanácká scores more
48%

Hanácká at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
T. Jelecek
34'
S. Prokaj
38'
J. Kiska
44'
M. Suchy
44'
O. Pernatskyi
46'
L. Hronik← L. Hronik
54'
M. Votava
60'
P. Simr← M. Vintr
60'
M. Suchy← M. Suchy
64'
M. Surynek← M. Surynek
67'
L. Vychodil
70'
C. Lhotecky
70'
P. Cervenka← P. Cervenka
76'
A. Hretsaichuk← A. Hretsaichuk
80'
D. Plecity← D. Plecity
81'
F. Prikryl
82'
O. Pernatskyi
87'
M. Vintr
90+2'
R. Konecny
90+2'
T. Matousek
90+2'
O. Putyera
90+2'
O. Putyera← M. Fiala
90+5'
M. Cupak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Viktoria Otrokovice 2–1 Hanácká

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Hanácká 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 1, 2022.

Goals: O. Pernatskyi (44', 82'), M. Votava (54').

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.