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Hanácká vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hanácká
Hanácká
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
S. Chwaszcz 52', 8'
T. Machalek 29'
P. Chovan 53'
5/6/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 27Stadion SK Hanácká Slavia Kroměříž

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hanácká59%
×Draw20%
Viktoria Otrokovice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanácká
2.17
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.19

Hanácká creates 82% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hanácká
2.33
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.39

allows per match

Hanácká
1.00
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.00

finishing

Hanácká+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanácká ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hanácká or draw
80%
Hanácká or Viktoria Otrokovice
80%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
41%

Winning margin

Hanácká wins by 2+
37%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hanácká 1+ goals
89%
Hanácká 2+ goals
64%
Hanácká 3+ goals
36%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
70%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
33%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hanácká (draw refunded)
75%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanácká at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.00 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanácká attack 2.33 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.39 + Hanácká defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hanácká scores more
59%
level
20%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
20%

Hanácká at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Chwaszcz
13'
O. Pernatskyi
19'
T. Jelecek← T. Machalek
28'
J. Kiska
29'
T. Machalek
30'
T. Machalek
46'
M. Guzik← M. Guzik
46'
R. Smekal← R. Smekal
46'
L. Vychodil← L. Vychodil
46'
D. Rapavy← D. Rapavy
52'
S. Chwaszcz
53'
P. Chovan
70'
D. Jambor← D. Jambor
70'
J. Dockal← J. Dockal
81'
M. Machalek
85'
S. Chwaszcz← M. Votava
90+2'
R. Smekal
90+2'
L. Vychodil
90+3'
R. Russmann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hanácká 3–1 Viktoria Otrokovice

Hanácká beat Viktoria Otrokovice 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 6, 2023.

Goals: S. Chwaszcz (8', 52'), T. Machalek (29'), P. Chovan (53').

The match was played at Stadion SK Hanácká Slavia Kroměříž in Kroměříž.