Viktoria Berlin U19 2–1 Union Berlin U19

Viktoria Berlin U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Union Berlin U19

M. Keskin 83'

O. Skakun 30' (pen)

T. Schleinitz 59'

8/28/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 3Friedrich-Ebert-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Viktoria Berlin U1930%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.16

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.66

Union Berlin U19

2.16

Union Berlin U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 76 away

1.61

creates per match

1.95

2.37

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.61

Union Berlin U19

1.95

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.37

Union Berlin U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin U19 or draw

51%

Viktoria Berlin U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

70%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

14%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

81%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

49%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

23%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

88%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

63%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.37 · 41 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.61 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

30%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

49%

Union Berlin U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

O. SkakunPenalty

46'

D. Preu← J. Scholz

46'

G. Kamdem← C. Ackermann

57'

G. Phòng← M. Yildirim

59'

T. Schleinitz

61'

V. Aliji← T. Schleinitz

71'

J. Thurau← C. Drost

74'

B. Hoffmann← B. Gögce

81'

K. Kreibich← O. Skakun

81'

L. Sommerfeld← L. Halimi

83'

M. Keskin

87'

T. Kramer← L. Jurschik

Viktoria

Union

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Skakun

Manager: T. Meyer

57'▲G. Phòng←▼M. Yildirim

71'▲J. Thurau←▼C. Drost

81'▲K. Kreibich←▼O. Skakun

81'▲L. Sommerfeld←▼L. Halimi

Viktoria Berlin U19 substitutes

PhòngThurauKreibichSommerfeldKarakusMendesHinterschuster

Manager: M. Grote

46'▲D. Preu←▼J. Scholz

46'▲G. Kamdem←▼C. Ackermann

61'▲V. Aliji←▼T. Schleinitz

74'▲B. Hoffmann←▼B. Gögce

87'▲T. Kramer←▼L. Jurschik

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

PreuKamdemAlijiHoffmannKramerAlbertRösner

Match Recap: Viktoria Berlin U19 vs Union Berlin U19

Viktoria Berlin U19 beat Union Berlin U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 28, 2022.

Goals: O. Skakun (30' pen), T. Schleinitz (59'), M. Keskin (83').

The match was played at Friedrich-Ebert-Stadion in Berlin.

Viktoria Berlin U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Viktoria Berlin U19 vs Union Berlin U19