Union Berlin U19 0–0 Viktoria Berlin U19

Union Berlin U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Berlin U19

8/14/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Union Berlin U1957%

×Draw19%

Viktoria Berlin U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.50

Union Berlin U19

2.41

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.50

Union Berlin U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 41 away

2.32

creates per match

1.59

1.41

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.32

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.59

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.41

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Viktoria Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

77%

Union Berlin U19 or Viktoria Berlin U19

81%

Draw or Viktoria Berlin U19

43%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

36%

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

91%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

69%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

43%

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

78%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

44%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

Viktoria Berlin U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.32 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.41

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.59 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

57%

level

19%

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

23%

Union Berlin U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

K. Ahmad← L. Jaisi

57'

P. Kühn← B. Gögce

63'

S. Akpolat← K. Horataci

68'

L. Mattmüller← A. Kemlein

74'

L. Dahlke← W. Noack

82'

J. Imasuen← K. Grigoriadis

84'

T. Jakob← B. Kluge

Union

Viktoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Vilk

57'▲P. Kühn←▼B. Gögce

68'▲L. Mattmüller←▼A. Kemlein

74'▲L. Dahlke←▼W. Noack

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

KühnMattmüllerDahlkeMätzkeGraupnerHawwary

Manager: S. Keskin

55'▲K. Ahmad←▼L. Jaisi

63'▲S. Akpolat←▼K. Horataci

82'▲J. Imasuen←▼K. Grigoriadis

84'▲T. Jakob←▼B. Kluge

Viktoria Berlin U19 substitutes

AhmadAkpolatImasuenJakobSchulzFürstThurau

U19 Bundesliga: Union Berlin U19 0–0 Viktoria Berlin U19

Union Berlin U19 and Viktoria Berlin U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion An der Wuhlheide in Berlin.

Union Berlin U19 vs Viktoria Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Union Berlin U19 0–0 Viktoria Berlin U19