Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Berlin U19 vs Viktoria Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
CANC
11:00
Viktoria Berlin U19
Viktoria Berlin U19
11/7/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 6Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Union Berlin U1957%
×Draw19%
Viktoria Berlin U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin U19
2.40
Viktoria Berlin U19
1.49

Union Berlin U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 41 away

creates per match

Union Berlin U19
2.30
Viktoria Berlin U19
1.59

allows per match

Union Berlin U19
1.39
Viktoria Berlin U19
2.49

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Viktoria Berlin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw
77%
Union Berlin U19 or Viktoria Berlin U19
81%
Draw or Viktoria Berlin U19
43%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
36%
Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
91%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
69%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
42%
Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals
44%
Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Viktoria Berlin U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.30 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.40

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.59 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more
57%
level
19%
Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more
23%

Union Berlin U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Union Berlin U19 face Viktoria Berlin U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Union Berlin U19 hosting Viktoria Berlin U19. Match starts November 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Union Berlin U19 host Viktoria Berlin U19 at Stadion An der Wuhlheide.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.