Viking 3–3 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Viking

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

ODD Ballklubb

N. D'Agostino 90+5'

L. Salvesen 79'

H. Heggheim 35'

B. Njie 90'

S. Sinyan 18'

M. Rugland Ree 15' (OG)

10/20/2024

Eliteserien · Round 25SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Viking63%

×Draw20%

ODD Ballklubb17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.06

Viking

2.19

ODD Ballklubb

1.06

Viking creates 107% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

2.16

creates per match

0.94

1.18

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Viking

2.16

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Viking

1.18

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.72scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Viking+0.72scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Viking or draw

83%

Viking or ODD Ballklubb

80%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

37%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

40%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

89%

Viking 2+ goals

64%

Viking 3+ goals

37%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

65%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

29%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

78%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.22 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.16 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.19

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Viking defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Viking scores more

63%

level

20%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

17%

Viking at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripić

Viking · M

8.2

Match Events

15'

M. Rugland ReeOwn goal

18'

S. Sinyan↳ S. Johansen

29'

Alexander Fransson

35'

H. Heggheim↳ S. Svendsen

39'

Simen Kvia-Egeskog

45'

Josef Baccay

53'

Jošt Urbančič

59'

L. Salvesen← H. Finndell

59'

N. Fuglestad← S. Kvia-Egeskog

62'

B. Njie← B. Bang-Kittelsen

67'

Kjetil Haug

72'

N. D'Agostino← J. Urbančič

72'

V. Vevatne← S. Svendsen

78'

S. Owusu← T. Svendsen

78'

79'

87'

89'

90+2'

90+1'

90'

B. Njie↳ F. Jørgensen

90+5'

N. D'Agostino↳ C. Cappis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingODD

Overview

66%Possession34%

26Total Shots7

3.07Expected Goals (xG)1.03

8Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots7

9On Target4

10Off Target2

7Blocked1

20Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

536Total Passes290

448Accurate Passes185

84%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides3

Eliteserien: Viking 3–3 ODD Ballklubb

Viking and ODD Ballklubb drew 3-3 in Eliteserien on October 20, 2024.

Goals: M. Rugland Ree (15' o.g.), S. Sinyan (18'), H. Heggheim (35'), L. Salvesen (79'), B. Njie (90'), N. D'Agostino (90+5').

Viking controlled possession (66%) and registered 26 shots to 7.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Viking 3–3 ODD Ballklubb