Viking 1–2 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Viking

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

V. Vevatne 61'

K. Jakobsen 90+2'

T. Lauritsen 17'

7/12/2020

Eliteserien · Round 7SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Viking63%

×Draw20%

ODD Ballklubb18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.06

Viking

2.18

ODD Ballklubb

1.06

Viking creates 106% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

2.11

creates per match

0.94

1.19

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Viking

2.11

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Viking

1.19

ODD Ballklubb

2.26

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Viking+0.52scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Viking or draw

82%

Viking or ODD Ballklubb

80%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

37%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

39%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

89%

Viking 2+ goals

64%

Viking 3+ goals

37%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

65%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

29%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

78%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.26 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.11 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.18

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Viking defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Viking scores more

63%

level

20%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

18%

Viking at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Z. Bytyqi

Viking · F

8.0

Match Events

17'

T. Lauritsen↳ M. Kaasa

59'

S. Auklend← J. Bell

60'

O. Ugwuadu← M. Kaasa

60'

K. Jakobsen← E. Rashani

61'

V. Vevatne↳ Z. Bytyqi

68'

F. Nordkvelle← F. Jørgensen

72'

T. Høiland← V. Berisha

78'

H. Tangen← K. Løkberg

87'

Kasper Lunding

90+1'

M. Bakenga← J. Kitolano

90+2'

K. Jakobsen↳ O. Ugwuadu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingODD

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots10

4Corners6

17Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots10

4On Target4

8Off Target3

1Blocked3

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

402Total Passes431

291Accurate Passes321

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5

Match Recap: Viking vs ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Viking 2-1 in Eliteserien on July 12, 2020.

Goals: T. Lauritsen (17'), V. Vevatne (61'), K. Jakobsen (90+2').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Viking vs ODD Ballklubb