Viking 3–2 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Brann

S. Bjorshol 90'

H. Heggheim 42'

K. Haugen 10'

J. Soltvedt 58'

N. Holm 37'

4/18/2026

Eliteserien · Round 5Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Viking50%

×Draw23%

Brann27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.31

Viking

1.85

Brann

1.31

Viking creates 41% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

2.19

creates per match

1.49

1.13

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Viking

2.19

Brann

1.49

allows per match

Viking

1.13

Brann

1.52

+0.77scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Viking+0.77scores more

Brann+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Viking or draw

73%

Viking or Brann

77%

Draw or Brann

50%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

28%

Brann wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

84%

Viking 2+ goals

55%

Viking 3+ goals

28%

Brann 1+ goals

73%

Brann 2+ goals

38%

Brann 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

65%

Brann (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Brann away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.19 + Brann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.85

Brann attack 1.49 + Viking defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viking scores more

50%

level

23%

Brann scores more

27%

Viking at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripic

Viking · M

9.3

Match Events

10'

K. Haugen↳ H. Falchener

37'

N. Holm↳ F. Myhre

42'

H. Heggheim↳ Z. Tripic

49'

Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson

53'

Henrik Heggheim

55'

M. Haaland← J. Thorsteinsson

56'

Bard FinnePenalty confirmed

56'

U. Mathisen← B. Finne

58'

Joachim SoltvedtMissed penalty

58'

J. Soltvedt↳ K. Eriksen

62'

Denzel De Roeve

65'

N. Fuglestad← H. J. Haugen

71'

K. M. Ingason← K. Eriksen

85'

Felix Horn Myhre

86'

S. Bjorshol← H. Heggheim

86'

J. Hansen← K. Askildsen

89'

Mathias Dyngeland

90+8'

A. Baertelsen← Z. Tripic

90+6'

R. Matondo← T. Pedersen

90'

S. Bjorshol↳ Z. Tripic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingBrann

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots8

1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.50

6Corners7

12Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots8

7On Target4

9Off Target2

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

468Total Passes381

349Accurate Passes257

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-1.99Goals Prevented-1.99

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Viking 3 – 2 Brann

Viking beat Brann 3-2 in Eliteserien on April 18, 2026.

Goals: K. Haugen (10'), N. Holm (37'), H. Heggheim (42'), J. Soltvedt (58'), S. Bjorshol (90').

Viking controlled possession (56%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Viking 3 – 2 Brann