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Viking vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brann
Brann
L. Salvesen 22'
O. Didrik Blomberg 70'
4/14/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 3SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Viking49%
×Draw23%
Brann28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
1.84
Brann
1.35

Viking creates 36% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

Viking
2.16
Brann
1.52

allows per match

Viking
1.18
Brann
1.52

finishing

Viking+0.72scores more
Brann+0.23scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Brann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Viking or draw
72%
Viking or Brann
77%
Draw or Brann
51%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
27%
Brann wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
84%
Viking 2+ goals
55%
Viking 3+ goals
28%
Brann 1+ goals
74%
Brann 2+ goals
39%
Brann 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
63%
Brann (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

Brann away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.16 + Brann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.84

Brann attack 1.52 + Viking defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viking scores more
49%
level
23%
Brann scores more
28%

Viking at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
O. Didrik BlombergBrannBrann · F
8.9

Match Events

22'
L. Salvesen↳ J. Bell
44'
S. Kartum← N. Jensen Wassberg
60'
Joe Bell
62'
P. Christiansen← S. Svendsen
62'
Z. Tripić← N. DAgostino
62'
Y. de Lanlay← H. Tangen
66'
Sondre Klingen Langås
70'
O. Didrik Blomberg
72'
U. Mathisen← M. Warming
76'
S. Auklend← J. Bell
80'
Emil Kornvig
83'
Bård FinneGoal cancelled
85'
G. Stensness← P. Yazbek
90+5'
N. Castro← U. Mathisen

Possession

43%Viking

Shots

7Viking

Pass accuracy

48%Viking

Statistics

VikingBrann
Overview
43%Possession57%
7Total Shots23
1.54Expected Goals (xG)2.42
3Corners11
11Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots23
3On Target4
2Off Target12
2Blocked7
6Inside Box19
1Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
340Total Passes448
238Accurate Passes347
70%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Viking vs Brann

Viking and Brann drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on April 14, 2024.

Goals: L. Salvesen (22'), O. Didrik Blomberg (70').

Brann controlled possession (57%) and registered 23 shots to 7.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.