Brann 3–1 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Viking

S. Magnusson 77'

J. Sery Larsen 28'

J. Soltvedt 18'

J. Bell 90'

7/13/2025

Eliteserien · Round 13Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brann44%

×Draw24%

Viking32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.38

Brann

1.67

Viking

1.38

Brann creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

2.25

creates per match

1.73

1.02

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Brann

2.25

Viking

1.73

allows per match

Brann

1.02

Viking

1.08

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Brann-0.08on par

Viking+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brann or draw

68%

Brann or Viking

76%

Draw or Viking

56%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

23%

Viking wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

81%

Brann 2+ goals

50%

Brann 3+ goals

23%

Viking 1+ goals

75%

Viking 2+ goals

40%

Viking 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

58%

Viking (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.02 · 24 matches

Viking away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.08 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.25 + Viking defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Viking attack 1.73 + Brann defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brann scores more

44%

level

24%

Viking scores more

32%

Brann at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Soltvedt

Brann · D

8.0

Match Events

18'

J. Soltvedt↳ U. Mathisen

28'

J. Sery Larsen↳ J. Soltvedt

30'

Vetle Auklend

46'

H. J. Haugen← S. Svendsen

46'

K. Haugen← V. Auklend

46'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← J. Hansen

49'

Thore Baardsen Pedersen

59'

Peter Christiansen

64'

C. Cappis← K. Askildsen

65'

Japhet Sery Larsen

68'

D. De Roeve← T. Pedersen

68'

S. Magnusson← B. Finne

71'

M. Sande← M. Hansen

71'

H. Mikaelsson← H. Heggheim

72'

M. Haaland← U. Mathisen

77'

S. Magnusson↳ E. Kornvig

80'

R. Holten← J. Soltvedt

82'

Joe Bell

84'

Kristoffer Haugen

90+5'

Japhet Sery Larsen

90+4'

Japhet Sery LarsenCard upgrade

90'

J. Bell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannViking

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots7

1.36Expected Goals (xG)0.31

5Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots7

4On Target3

5Off Target3

8Blocked1

11Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

328Total Passes408

226Accurate Passes306

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

4Offsides4

Eliteserien: Brann 3–1 Viking

Brann beat Viking 3-1 in Eliteserien on July 13, 2025.

Goals: J. Soltvedt (18'), J. Sery Larsen (28'), S. Magnusson (77'), J. Bell (90').

Viking controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 17.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Brann 3–1 Viking