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Viking II vs Haugesund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2026

Viking II
Viking II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Haugesund II
Haugesund II
H. Mikaelsson 44' (pen)
N. Fuglestad 25'
F. A. Jakobsen 42'
4/28/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 4Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Viking II58%
×Draw19%
Haugesund II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking II
2.58
Haugesund II
1.61

Viking II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Viking II
2.92
Haugesund II
1.54

allows per match

Viking II
1.69
Haugesund II
2.23

finishing

Viking II+0.00on par
Haugesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 78Under: 2278%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 74No: 2674%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking II ↓

Haugesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Viking II or draw
77%
Viking II or Haugesund II
81%
Draw or Haugesund II
42%

Winning margin

Viking II wins by 2+
38%
Haugesund II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viking II 1+ goals
92%
Viking II 2+ goals
72%
Viking II 3+ goals
47%
Haugesund II 1+ goals
80%
Haugesund II 2+ goals
48%
Haugesund II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Viking II (draw refunded)
71%
Haugesund II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking II at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Haugesund II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking II attack 2.92 + Haugesund II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.58

Haugesund II attack 1.54 + Viking II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Viking II scores more
58%
level
19%
Haugesund II scores more
23%

Viking II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
N. Fuglestad
42'
F. A. Jakobsen
44'
H. MikaelssonPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viking II 2 – 1 Haugesund II

Viking II beat Haugesund II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 28, 2025.

Goals: N. Fuglestad (25'), F. A. Jakobsen (42'), H. Mikaelsson (44' pen).

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.