Viking II 6–1 Haugesund II: Result & Stats

Viking II

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Haugesund II

J. Fiksdal 85'

M. Traore 60' (pen), 57', 33', 3'

F. Torsteinbo 20'

U. Fredriksen 15'

9/22/2022

3. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 22SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Viking II66%

×Draw17%

Haugesund II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viking IIExpected goals in this matchHaugesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.33

Viking II

2.73

Haugesund II

1.33

Viking II creates 105% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

3.00

creates per match

1.38

1.28

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Viking II

3.00

Haugesund II

1.38

allows per match

Viking II

1.28

Haugesund II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking II+0.00on par

Haugesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking II ↓

Haugesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Viking II or draw

83%

Viking II or Haugesund II

83%

Draw or Haugesund II

34%

Winning margin

Viking II wins by 2+

45%

Haugesund II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Viking II 1+ goals

93%

Viking II 2+ goals

75%

Viking II 3+ goals

50%

Haugesund II 1+ goals

74%

Haugesund II 2+ goals

38%

Haugesund II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Viking II (draw refunded)

80%

Haugesund II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Haugesund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking II attack 3.00 + Haugesund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.73

Haugesund II attack 1.38 + Viking II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Viking II scores more

66%

level

17%

Haugesund II scores more

17%

Viking II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

15'

20'

33'

57'

60'

M. TraorePenalty

85'

J. Fiksdal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff