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Haugesund II vs Viking II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2026

Haugesund II
Haugesund II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Viking II
Viking II
E. Dahman 80'
9/6/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 19Sparebanken Vest Arena Karmøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haugesund II35%
×Draw21%
Viking II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund II
1.77
Viking II
2.00

Viking II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Haugesund II
1.62
Viking II
1.54

allows per match

Haugesund II
2.46
Viking II
1.92

finishing

Haugesund II+0.00on par
Viking II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund II ↓

Viking II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Haugesund II or draw
56%
Haugesund II or Viking II
79%
Draw or Viking II
65%

Winning margin

Haugesund II wins by 2+
18%
Viking II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Haugesund II 1+ goals
83%
Haugesund II 2+ goals
53%
Haugesund II 3+ goals
26%
Viking II 1+ goals
86%
Viking II 2+ goals
59%
Viking II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Haugesund II (draw refunded)
44%
Viking II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Viking II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund II attack 1.62 + Viking II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Viking II attack 1.54 + Haugesund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haugesund II scores more
35%
level
21%
Viking II scores more
44%

Viking II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
F. A. Jakobsen
57'
F. A. Jakobsen
80'
E. Dahman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haugesund II vs Viking II

Viking II beat Haugesund II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: E. Dahman (80').

The match was played at Sparebanken Vest Arena Karmøy in Veavågen.