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Vihiga Bullets vs Mathare United — Super League 2018

Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mathare United
Mathare United
12/1/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vihiga Bullets37%
×Draw27%
Mathare United36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihiga Bullets
1.27
Mathare United
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.32
Mathare United
1.37

allows per match

Vihiga Bullets
1.11
Mathare United
1.21

finishing

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga Bullets ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vihiga Bullets or draw
64%
Vihiga Bullets or Mathare United
73%
Draw or Mathare United
63%

Winning margin

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
16%
Mathare United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
72%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
36%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
14%
Mathare United 1+ goals
71%
Mathare United 2+ goals
35%
Mathare United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
51%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga Bullets at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Mathare United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga Bullets attack 1.32 + Mathare United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mathare United attack 1.37 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vihiga Bullets scores more
37%
level
27%
Mathare United scores more
36%

Vihiga Bullets at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vihiga Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihiga Bullets vs Mathare United

Mathare United beat Vihiga Bullets 3-2 in Super League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.