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Mathare United vs Vihiga Bullets — FKF Premier League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vihiga Bullets
Vihiga Bullets
2/8/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mathare United54%
×Draw24%
Vihiga Bullets22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.75
Vihiga Bullets
1.04

Mathare United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 35 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.13
Vihiga Bullets
0.83

allows per match

Mathare United
1.26
Vihiga Bullets
2.37

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Vihiga Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
78%
Mathare United or Vihiga Bullets
76%
Draw or Vihiga Bullets
46%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
30%
Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
83%
Mathare United 2+ goals
52%
Mathare United 3+ goals
25%
Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals
65%
Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals
28%
Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
71%
Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 126 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.13 + Vihiga Bullets defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.83 + Mathare United defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mathare United scores more
54%
level
24%
Vihiga Bullets scores more
22%

Mathare United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Mathare United 1–0 Vihiga Bullets

Mathare United beat Vihiga Bullets 1-0 in FKF Premier League on February 8, 2023.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.