Mathare United 2–1 Vihiga Bullets: Result & Stats

Mathare United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vihiga Bullets

5/31/2024

Super League · Round 34Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mathare United64%

×Draw23%

Vihiga Bullets14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mathare UnitedExpected goals in this matchVihiga Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.66

Mathare United

1.76

Vihiga Bullets

0.66

Mathare United creates 167% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.84

creates per match

0.84

0.47

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Mathare United

1.84

Vihiga Bullets

0.84

allows per match

Mathare United

0.47

Vihiga Bullets

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Vihiga Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw

86%

Mathare United or Vihiga Bullets

77%

Draw or Vihiga Bullets

36%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+

37%

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals

83%

Mathare United 2+ goals

52%

Mathare United 3+ goals

26%

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

48%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

14%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)

83%

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.84 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.76

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Mathare United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mathare United scores more

64%

level

23%

Vihiga Bullets scores more

14%

Mathare United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff