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Victoria Bardar vs Dacia-Buiucani — Super Liga 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
A. Arabadji 63'
V. Dumbrava 77'
V. Nikhaev 51' (pen)
C. Sandu 36', 32' (pen)
S. Turcan 26'
5/10/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 10Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Bardar49%
×Draw22%
Dacia-Buiucani29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
1.89
Dacia-Buiucani
1.41

Victoria Bardar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 73 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.29
Dacia-Buiucani
1.19

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
1.62
Dacia-Buiucani
1.49

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

Dacia-Buiucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
71%
Victoria Bardar or Dacia-Buiucani
78%
Draw or Dacia-Buiucani
51%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
27%
Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
85%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
56%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
29%
Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
76%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
41%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
63%
Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Dacia-Buiucani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.49 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.29 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.89

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.19 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
49%
level
22%
Dacia-Buiucani scores more
29%

Victoria Bardar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
S. Turcan
32'
C. SanduPenalty
36'
C. Sandu
51'
V. NikhaevPenalty
63'
A. Arabadji
77'
V. Dumbrava
Victoria
Dacia-Buiucani
A. Novicov
Manager: A. Novicov
V. Frunză
Manager: V. Frunză

Match Recap: Victoria Bardar vs Dacia-Buiucani

Dacia-Buiucani beat Victoria Bardar 5-1 in Super Liga on May 10, 2025.

Goals: S. Turcan (26'), C. Sandu (32' pen, 36'), V. Nikhaev (51' pen), A. Arabadji (63'), V. Dumbrava (77').

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.