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Dacia-Buiucani vs Victoria — Super Liga 2026

Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Victoria
Victoria
D. Demian 85'
I. Botnari 66', 42'
I. Sandu 59'
5/10/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 10Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dacia-Buiucani43%
×Draw23%
Victoria34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia-Buiucani
1.74
Victoria
1.52

Dacia-Buiucani creates 14% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.42
Victoria
1.69

allows per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.36
Victoria
2.06

finishing

Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par
Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia-Buiucani ↓

Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dacia-Buiucani or draw
66%
Dacia-Buiucani or Victoria
77%
Draw or Victoria
57%

Winning margin

Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
23%
Victoria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
82%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
52%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
25%
Victoria 1+ goals
78%
Victoria 2+ goals
45%
Victoria 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
56%
Victoria (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia-Buiucani at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Victoria away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.42 + Victoria defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.74

Victoria attack 1.69 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dacia-Buiucani scores more
43%
level
23%
Victoria scores more
34%

Dacia-Buiucani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dacia-Buiucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
I. Botnari
59'
I. Sandu
66'
I. Botnari
85'
D. Demian

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dacia-Buiucani vs Victoria

Dacia-Buiucani beat Victoria 3-1 in Super Liga on May 10, 2023.

Goals: I. Botnari (42', 66'), I. Sandu (59'), D. Demian (85').

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.