Vicenza Virtus 1–2 Perugia: Result & Stats

Vicenza Virtus

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Perugia

N. Dalmonte 2'

J. Segre 57'

M. Curado 17'

4/18/2022

Serie B · Round 35Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Vicenza Virtus38%

×Draw28%

Perugia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchPerugia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.14

Vicenza Virtus

1.22

Perugia

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 76 away

1.10

creates per match

1.05

1.22

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.10

Perugia

1.05

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.22

Perugia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Perugia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

66%

Vicenza Virtus or Perugia

72%

Draw or Perugia

62%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

16%

Perugia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

70%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

34%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

12%

Perugia 1+ goals

68%

Perugia 2+ goals

32%

Perugia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

53%

Perugia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.33 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.10 + Perugia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Perugia attack 1.05 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

38%

level

28%

Perugia scores more

34%

Vicenza Virtus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Curado

Perugia · D

7.7

Match Events

2'

N. Dalmonte↳ L. Zonta

7'

17'

19'

31'

33'

38'

Manuel De LucaGoal cancelled

42'

Ryder Matos

57'

J. Segre↳ Ryder Matos

58'

Emanuele Padella

61'

Ł. Teodorczyk← N. Dalmonte

61'

J. Greco← S. Giacomelli

61'

F. Ranocchia← L. Zonta

70'

M. Olivieri← M. De Luca

70'

A. Beghetto← F. Lisi

71'

S. Santoro← J. Segre

74'

Alessio Da Cruz← M. Cavion

80'

A. Ghion← G. Ferrarini

83'

L. Crecco← J. Lukaku

90+1'

M. Carretta← Ryder Matos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaPerugia

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots2

6Corners3

17Fouls25

Shots

11Total Shots2

5On Target2

3Off Target0

3Blocked0

8Inside Box2

3Outside Box0

Passing

45%Possession55%

287Total Passes364

198Accurate Passes275

69%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls25

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3