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Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Perugia
Perugia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
4/1/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 33Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Perugia45%
×Draw27%
Vicenza Virtus29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perugia
1.40
Vicenza Virtus
1.06

Perugia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 44 away

creates per match

Perugia
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.02

allows per match

Perugia
1.09
Vicenza Virtus
1.64

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par
Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Vicenza Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Perugia or draw
71%
Perugia or Vicenza Virtus
73%
Draw or Vicenza Virtus
55%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+
21%
Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals
75%
Perugia 2+ goals
41%
Perugia 3+ goals
17%
Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
65%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
29%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)
61%
Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.17 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Perugia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Perugia scores more
45%
level
27%
Vicenza Virtus scores more
29%

Perugia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Perugia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Perugia vs Vicenza Virtus

Perugia beat Vicenza Virtus 1-0 in Serie B on April 1, 2017.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Curi in Perugia.