Perugia 1–0 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats

Perugia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vicenza Virtus

M. De Luca 49'

12/3/2021

Serie B · Round 16Stadio Renato Curi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Perugia44%

×Draw27%

Vicenza Virtus29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PerugiaExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Perugia

1.39

Vicenza Virtus

1.06

Perugia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 43 away

1.17

creates per match

1.02

1.09

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Perugia

1.17

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Perugia

1.09

Vicenza Virtus

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perugia+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perugia ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Perugia or draw

71%

Perugia or Vicenza Virtus

73%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

56%

Winning margin

Perugia wins by 2+

21%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Perugia 1+ goals

75%

Perugia 2+ goals

40%

Perugia 3+ goals

16%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

65%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

29%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Perugia (draw refunded)

61%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perugia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perugia attack 1.17 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Perugia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Perugia scores more

44%

level

27%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

29%

Perugia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Perugia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Chichizola

Perugia · G

8.3

Match Events

5'

Marcello Falzerano

22'

Mario Ierardi

40'

Christian Kouan

46'

G. Ferrarini← C. Kouan

49'

M. De Luca↳ G. Ferrarini

51'

Gabriele FerrariniGoal confirmed

55'

Manuel De Luca

63'

S. Pontisso← M. Bruscagin

69'

S. Righetti← F. Lisi

69'

A. Ghion← M. Falzerano

76'

V. Vanbaleghem← M. De Luca

80'

M. Calderoni← L. Crecco

81'

F. Alessio← L. Zonta

85'

Cristian Dell'Orco

86'

E. Padella← A. Di Pardo

89'

J. Murano← Ryder Matos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PerugiaVicenza

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots13

4Corners3

21Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots13

5On Target5

3Off Target5

4Blocked3

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

378Total Passes406

278Accurate Passes281

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0