Vicenza Virtus 0–1 Cremonese: Result & Stats

Vicenza Virtus

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cremonese

D. Ciofani 44' (pen)

9/26/2021

Serie B · Round 6Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vicenza Virtus34%

×Draw28%

Cremonese39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.26

Vicenza Virtus

1.15

Cremonese

1.26

Cremonese creates 10% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 117 away

1.10

creates per match

1.23

1.29

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.10

Cremonese

1.23

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.29

Cremonese

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

61%

Vicenza Virtus or Cremonese

72%

Draw or Cremonese

66%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

14%

Cremonese wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

68%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

32%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

11%

Cremonese 1+ goals

72%

Cremonese 2+ goals

36%

Cremonese 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

46%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.10 + Cremonese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

34%

level

28%

Cremonese scores more

39%

Cremonese at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Ciofani

Cremonese · F

7.7

Match Events

10'

Marco Calderoni

24'

M. Sarr← M. Carnesecchi

27'

Davide Diaw

41'

Leonardo SernicolaGoal cancelled

42'

Marco Calderoni

42'

Marco Calderoni

44'

D. CiofaniPenalty

46'

48'

49'

53'

54'

60'

S. Giacomelli← F. Proia

61'

N. Dalmonte← R. Meggiorini

61'

J. Báez← G. Gaetano

61'

F. Deli← L. Zanimacchia

71'

Stefano Giacomelli

74'

L. Vido← N. Fagioli

74'

L. Valzania← C. Buonaiuto

78'

Luca Valzania

80'

Nicola Dalmonte

85'

R. Brosco← A. Di Pardo

90+2'

Riccardo Brosco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaCremonese

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots11

5Corners1

20Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots11

0On Target3

6Off Target4

1Blocked4

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

349Total Passes432

257Accurate Passes342

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

20Fouls13

8Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese

Cremonese beat Vicenza Virtus 1-0 in Serie B on September 26, 2021.

Goals: D. Ciofani (44' pen).

Cremonese controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese