Cremonese 0–1 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats

Cremonese

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vicenza Virtus

E. Padella 84'

11/7/2020

Serie B · Round 7Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cremonese50%

×Draw26%

Vicenza Virtus24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CremoneseExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.96

Cremonese

1.50

Vicenza Virtus

0.96

Cremonese creates 56% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 43 away

1.39

creates per match

1.02

0.89

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cremonese

1.39

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Cremonese

0.89

Vicenza Virtus

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw

76%

Cremonese or Vicenza Virtus

74%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

50%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+

25%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals

78%

Cremonese 2+ goals

44%

Cremonese 3+ goals

19%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

62%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

25%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)

67%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cremonese scores more

50%

level

26%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

24%

Cremonese at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Padella

Vicenza Virtus · D

7.9

Match Events

29'

Riccardo Meggiorini

38'

Luca Ravanelli

45+2'

A. Cinelli← S. Pontisso

46'

Pietro Beruatto

46'

A. Marotta← G. Gori

46'

J. Vandeputte← A. Nalini

54'

Alessandro Marotta

64'

C. Buonaiuto← F. Nardi

64'

F. Ceravolo← D. Ciofani

73'

S. Longo← R. Meggiorini

74'

Ž. Celar← L. Strizzolo

79'

J. Da Riva← L. Rigoni

83'

M. Pinato← G. Gaetano

83'

E. Valeri← A. Crescenzi

84'

E. Padella↳ J. Da Riva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CremoneseVicenza

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots14

3Corners5

17Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots14

1On Target3

6Off Target5

3Blocked6

4Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

328Total Passes248

211Accurate Passes155

64%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3