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Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cremonese
Cremonese
3/2/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus34%
×Draw28%
Cremonese39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza Virtus
1.15
Cremonese
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 117 away

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.11
Cremonese
1.23

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.27
Cremonese
1.19

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par
Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw
61%
Vicenza Virtus or Cremonese
72%
Draw or Cremonese
66%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
14%
Cremonese wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
68%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
32%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
11%
Cremonese 1+ goals
71%
Cremonese 2+ goals
36%
Cremonese 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
47%
Cremonese (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Cremonese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more
34%
level
28%
Cremonese scores more
39%

Cremonese at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese

Vicenza Virtus beat Cremonese 3-1 in Serie B on March 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.