VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Hertha Berlin: Result & Stats

VfL Wolfsburg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hertha Berlin

J. Kamiński 2'

M. Richter 68'

I. Maza 55'

5/27/2023

Bundesliga · Round 34VOLKSWAGEN ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg48%

×Draw24%

Hertha Berlin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL WolfsburgExpected goals in this matchHertha Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.26

VfL Wolfsburg

1.73

Hertha Berlin

1.26

VfL Wolfsburg creates 37% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 79 away

1.58

creates per match

1.19

1.33

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.58

Hertha Berlin

1.19

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.33

Hertha Berlin

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Hertha Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw

72%

VfL Wolfsburg or Hertha Berlin

76%

Draw or Hertha Berlin

52%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

26%

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

82%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

52%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

25%

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

72%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

36%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

63%

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 130 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.58 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hertha Berlin attack 1.19 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

48%

level

24%

Hertha Berlin scores more

28%

VfL Wolfsburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Kempf

Hertha Berlin · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

J. Kamiński↳ Y. Gerhardt

44'

Suat Serdar

45+5'

Jonjoe Kenny

45+3'

M. Svanberg← F. Nmecha

46'

D. Scherhant← J. Ngankam

46'

I. Maza← S. Serdar

48'

Marvin Plattenhardt

55'

I. Maza↳ L. Tousart

63'

P. Pekarík← M. Plattenhardt

66'

L. Waldschmidt← P. Wimmer

66'

K. Paredes← J. Kamiński

67'

Sebastiaan Bornauw

68'

M. Richter

71'

T. Rölke← F. Niederlechner

80'

D. Pejčinović← Y. Gerhardt

80'

Omar Marmoush← J. Wind

90+3'

Jean-Paul Boëtius

90+1'

Marco Richter

90+1'

J. Eitschberger← M. Richter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLHertha

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots8

3.46Expected Goals (xG)2.08

7Corners3

9Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots8

8On Target5

7Off Target1

5Blocked2

15Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

559Total Passes323

473Accurate Passes244

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls18

1Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2