Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha Berlin — Bundesliga 2026

VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
1/15/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 19VOLKSWAGEN ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg48%
×Draw24%
Hertha Berlin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Wolfsburg
1.73
Hertha Berlin
1.26

VfL Wolfsburg creates 37% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 79 away

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.58
Hertha Berlin
1.19

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.33
Hertha Berlin
1.89

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw
72%
VfL Wolfsburg or Hertha Berlin
76%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
52%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
26%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
82%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
52%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
25%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
72%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
36%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
63%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 132 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.58 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hertha Berlin attack 1.19 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more
48%
level
24%
Hertha Berlin scores more
28%

VfL Wolfsburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
J. BrooksVfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg · D
7.9

Match Events

39'
Renato Steffen
57'
Lukas Klünter
63'
A. Vranckx← R. Steffen
63'
D. Lukébakio← L. Waldschmidt
78'
D. Selke← M. Maolida
79'
F. Nmecha← Y. Gerhardt
87'
D. Boyata← J. Ekkelenkamp
90+3'
L. Tousart← S. Ascacíbar

Possession

47%VfL

Shots

9VfL

Pass accuracy

48%VfL

Statistics

VfLHertha
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots6
3Corners2
12Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots6
3On Target1
3Off Target5
3Blocked0
6Inside Box4
3Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
417Total Passes481
310Accurate Passes380
74%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
10Offsides5

Match Recap: VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha Berlin

VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha Berlin drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on January 15, 2022.

Hertha Berlin controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Wolfsburg.