Hertha Berlin 0–5 VfL Wolfsburg: Result & Stats

Hertha Berlin

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

VfL Wolfsburg

Omar Marmoush 86'

R. Baku 72'

J. Wind 34'

M. Arnold 31' (pen)

M. Svanberg 4'

1/24/2023

Bundesliga · Round 17Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Hertha Berlin34%

×Draw24%

VfL Wolfsburg42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BerlinExpected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.57

Hertha Berlin

1.40

VfL Wolfsburg

1.57

VfL Wolfsburg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 126 away

1.35

creates per match

1.48

1.66

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hertha Berlin

1.35

VfL Wolfsburg

1.48

allows per match

Hertha Berlin

1.66

VfL Wolfsburg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw

58%

Hertha Berlin or VfL Wolfsburg

76%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg

66%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

15%

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

75%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

41%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

17%

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

79%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

46%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

45%

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.66 · 80 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.35 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.48 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more

34%

level

24%

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

42%

VfL Wolfsburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Svanberg

VfL Wolfsburg · M

9.3

Match Events

4'

M. Svanberg↳ P. Wimmer

28'

Agustín Rogel

30'

Dodi Lukebakio

31'

M. ArnoldPenalty

34'

J. Wind↳ M. Svanberg

46'

F. Uremović← A. Rogel

46'

M. Plattenhardt← I. Šunjić

46'

J. Ngankam← M. Mittelstädt

64'

D. Scherhant← M. Richter

70'

J. Guilavogui← Y. Gerhardt

70'

K. Paredes← P. Wimmer

72'

R. Baku↳ M. Svanberg

78'

B. Franjić← J. Wind

79'

Omar Marmoush← J. Kamiński

83'

L. Waldschmidt← M. Arnold

86'

Omar Marmoush

87'

P. Pekarík← J. Kenny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HerthaVfL

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots17

0.36Expected Goals (xG)3.34

6Corners4

20Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots17

2On Target7

4Off Target5

2Blocked5

4Inside Box14

4Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

290Total Passes404

203Accurate Passes317

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2