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VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach — Bundesliga 2018

VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach
10/15/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 10VOLKSWAGEN ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg46%
×Draw24%
Borussia Monchengladbach30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Wolfsburg
1.68
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.33

VfL Wolfsburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.62
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.11

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.56
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.74

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg-0.38scores less
Borussia Monchengladbach-0.22scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Borussia Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw
70%
VfL Wolfsburg or Borussia Monchengladbach
76%
Draw or Borussia Monchengladbach
54%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
24%
Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
81%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
50%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
24%
Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals
74%
Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals
38%
Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
60%
Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.56 · 17 matches

Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.62 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.11 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more
46%
level
24%
Borussia Monchengladbach scores more
30%

VfL Wolfsburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 Borussia Monchengladbach

VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Monchengladbach drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA in Wolfsburg.