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Borussia Monchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg — Bundesliga 2018

Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
4/9/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 27Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Borussia Monchengladbach46%
×Draw23%
VfL Wolfsburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Monchengladbach
1.73
VfL Wolfsburg
1.38

Borussia Monchengladbach creates 25% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

creates per match

Borussia Monchengladbach
1.36
VfL Wolfsburg
1.19

allows per match

Borussia Monchengladbach
1.57
VfL Wolfsburg
2.09

finishing

Borussia Monchengladbach-0.03on par
VfL Wolfsburg+0.28scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Monchengladbach ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Borussia Monchengladbach or draw
69%
Borussia Monchengladbach or VfL Wolfsburg
77%
Draw or VfL Wolfsburg
54%

Winning margin

Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+
24%
VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals
82%
Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals
52%
Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals
25%
VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
75%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
40%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
60%
VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 24 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.09 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.36 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.73

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.19 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Borussia Monchengladbach scores more
46%
level
23%
VfL Wolfsburg scores more
31%

Borussia Monchengladbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Borussia Monchengladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Borussia Monchengladbach 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg

Borussia Monchengladbach beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-0 in Bundesliga on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Mönchengladbach.