Borussia Monchengladbach 0–0 VfL Wolfsburg

Borussia Monchengladbach

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

VfL Wolfsburg

12/5/2023

DFB Pokal · Round of 16Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Borussia Monchengladbach26%

×Draw22%

VfL Wolfsburg52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia MonchengladbachExpected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.96

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.33

VfL Wolfsburg

1.96

VfL Wolfsburg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

2.25

1.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Borussia Monchengladbach

2.00

VfL Wolfsburg

2.25

allows per match

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.67

VfL Wolfsburg

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Monchengladbach+0.00on par

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Monchengladbach ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Borussia Monchengladbach or draw

48%

Borussia Monchengladbach or VfL Wolfsburg

78%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg

74%

Winning margin

Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+

11%

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals

74%

Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals

38%

Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals

15%

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

86%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

58%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)

33%

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Monchengladbach at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 2.00 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

VfL Wolfsburg attack 2.25 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Borussia Monchengladbach scores more

26%

level

22%

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

52%

VfL Wolfsburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff