VfL Bochum 0–2 VfB Stuttgart: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

VfB Stuttgart

D. Undav 47'

P. Strompf 12' (OG)

12/3/2025

DFB Pokal · Round of 16Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

VfL Bochum18%

×Draw21%

VfB Stuttgart60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this matchVfB Stuttgart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.00

VfL Bochum

1.00

VfB Stuttgart

2.00

VfB Stuttgart creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

1.25

creates per match

2.24

1.75

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

VfL Bochum

1.25

VfB Stuttgart

2.24

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.75

VfB Stuttgart

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Bochum+0.00on par

VfB Stuttgart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

VfB Stuttgart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

40%

VfL Bochum or VfB Stuttgart

79%

Draw or VfB Stuttgart

82%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

6%

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

63%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

26%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

8%

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

86%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

59%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

23%

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

VfB Stuttgart away — creates 2.24, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 1.25 + VfB Stuttgart defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

VfB Stuttgart attack 2.24 + VfL Bochum defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

18%

level

21%

VfB Stuttgart scores more

60%

VfB Stuttgart at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Chabot

VfB Stuttgart · D

8.3

Match Events

12'

P. StrompfOwn goal

45+1'

Philipp Strompf

45'

Philipp StrompfCard upgrade

46'

E. Masovic← C. Lenz

46'

M. Kwarteng← F. Onyeka

47'

D. Undav↳ J. Leweling

60'

K. Koscierski← F. Alfa-Ruprecht

60'

F. Passlack← L. Morgalla

61'

C. Fuhrich← B. El Khannouss

61'

N. Nartey← R. Hendriks

76'

P. Hofmann← K. Watjen

76'

C. Andres← A. Stiller

76'

B. Bouanani← J. Leweling

89'

L. Stergiou← F. Jeltsch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLVfB

Overview

24%Possession76%

13Total Shots10

4Corners4

11Fouls5

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target4

6Off Target4

4Blocked2

8Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

24%Possession76%

224Total Passes723

146Accurate Passes640

65%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides7

DFB Pokal: VfL Bochum 0–2 VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Bochum 2-0 in DFB Pokal on December 3, 2025.

Goals: P. Strompf (12' o.g.), D. Undav (47').

VfB Stuttgart controlled possession (76%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.

VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart — DFB Pokal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DFB Pokal: VfL Bochum 0–2 VfB Stuttgart