VfB Stuttgart 4–1 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

VfB Stuttgart

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Vfl Bochum

W. Endo 71'

S. Katompa Mvumpa 64', 3' (pen)

N. Ahamada 22'

S. Zoller 29'

10/15/2022

Bundesliga · Round 10Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

VfB Stuttgart51%

×Draw23%

Vfl Bochum26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfB StuttgartExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.20

VfB Stuttgart

1.77

Vfl Bochum

1.20

VfB Stuttgart creates 48% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

1.88

creates per match

1.12

1.27

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.88

Vfl Bochum

1.12

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.27

Vfl Bochum

1.67

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

VfB Stuttgart-0.15scores less

Vfl Bochum-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw

74%

VfB Stuttgart or Vfl Bochum

77%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

49%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

28%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

83%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

53%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

26%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

70%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

34%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

66%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.88 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Vfl Bochum attack 1.12 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more

51%

level

23%

Vfl Bochum scores more

26%

VfB Stuttgart at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

S. Katompa Mvumpa

VfB Stuttgart · M

9.0

Match Events

3'

S. Katompa MvumpaPenalty

16'

Philipp Förster

22'

N. Ahamada↳ S. Katompa Mvumpa

29'

S. Zoller

46'

C. Antwi-Adjei← S. Zoller

52'

C. Führich← N. Ahamada

64'

S. Katompa Mvumpa↳ B. Sosa

70'

S. Ganvoula← A. Losilla

71'

Cristian Gamboa

71'

W. Endo

72'

Kevin Stöger

75'

H. Ito← K. Mavropanos

75'

J. Perea← Tiago Tomás

76'

N. Nartey← E. Millot

78'

P. Osterhage← G. Holtmann

84'

P. Stenzel← L. Pfeiffer

90'

V. Lampropoulos← P. Förster

90'

J. Osei-Tutu← P. Hofmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfBVfl

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots15

3Corners3

6Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots15

7On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked5

14Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

383Total Passes414

278Accurate Passes306

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1