Vfl Bochum 2–3 VfB Stuttgart: Result & Stats

Vfl Bochum

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

VfB Stuttgart

P. Hofmann 85'

K. Stöger 58' (pen)

J. Vagnoman 63'

S. Guirassy 60'

H. Ito 14'

4/9/2023

Bundesliga · Round 27Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Vfl Bochum40%

×Draw24%

VfB Stuttgart36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vfl BochumExpected goals in this matchVfB Stuttgart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.54

Vfl Bochum

1.64

VfB Stuttgart

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

1.51

creates per match

1.58

1.49

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Vfl Bochum

1.51

VfB Stuttgart

1.58

allows per match

Vfl Bochum

1.49

VfB Stuttgart

1.76

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

Vfl Bochum+0.07on par

VfB Stuttgart+0.59scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

VfB Stuttgart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw

64%

Vfl Bochum or VfB Stuttgart

76%

Draw or VfB Stuttgart

60%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

20%

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

81%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

49%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

23%

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

79%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

45%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

53%

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

VfB Stuttgart away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 1.51 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.64

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.58 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more

40%

level

24%

VfB Stuttgart scores more

36%

Vfl Bochum at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

H. Ito

VfB Stuttgart · D

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Anthony Losilla

14'

H. Ito

36'

Christopher Antwi-Adjei

37'

Serhou Guirassy

46'

P. Förster← P. Osterhage

58'

K. StögerPenalty

60'

S. Guirassy↳ B. Sosa

63'

J. Vagnoman↳ E. Millot

65'

G. Holtmann← K. Stafylidis

70'

G. Haraguchi← E. Millot

70'

L. Pfeiffer← S. Guirassy

76'

S. Katompa Mvumpa← C. Führich

78'

M. Broschinski← K. Stöger

85'

P. Hofmann↳ P. Förster

88'

P. Kunde← A. Losilla

90+7'

Manuel Riemann

90+7'

Fabian Bredlow

90+5'

Konstantinos Mavropanos

90+3'

D. Zagadou← B. Sosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VflVfB

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots15

2.32Expected Goals (xG)2.48

7Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target7

4Off Target6

3Blocked2

9Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

481Total Passes391

368Accurate Passes288

77%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0