Vfl Bochum 2–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Vfl Bochum

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2/18/2017

2. Bundesliga · Round 21Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vfl Bochum56%

×Draw22%

FC Wurzburger Kickers22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vfl BochumExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.13

Vfl Bochum

1.96

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.13

Vfl Bochum creates 73% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 28 away

2.02

creates per match

0.93

1.32

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Vfl Bochum

2.02

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.93

allows per match

Vfl Bochum

1.32

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vfl Bochum+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw

78%

Vfl Bochum or FC Wurzburger Kickers

78%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

44%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

33%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

86%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

58%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

31%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

68%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

31%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

72%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 2.02 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more

56%

level

22%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

22%

Vfl Bochum at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff