FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–3 Vfl Bochum

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Vfl Bochum

P. Sontheimer 35'

R. Munsy 7'

S. Zoller 73'

Danilo Soares 32'

S. Novothny 21'

11/1/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 6flyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers35%

×Draw26%

Vfl Bochum39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.34

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.25

Vfl Bochum

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 68 away

1.04

creates per match

1.16

1.52

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.04

Vfl Bochum

1.16

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.52

Vfl Bochum

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Vfl Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

61%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or Vfl Bochum

74%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

65%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

15%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

71%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

36%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

13%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

74%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

39%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

47%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.04 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vfl Bochum attack 1.16 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

35%

level

26%

Vfl Bochum scores more

39%

Vfl Bochum at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Zoller

Vfl Bochum · F

7.6

Match Events

7'

9'

20'

21'

25'

R. Tesche← A. Losilla

32'

35'

52'

59'

64'

64'

S. Ganvoula← S. Novothny

73'

S. Zoller↳ Danilo Soares

74'

F. Flecker← D. Baumann

78'

80'

81'

83'

90'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCVfl

Overview

39%Possession61%

14Total Shots9

3Corners8

13Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target4

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

11Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

329Total Passes535

232Accurate Passes440

71%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls21

2Yellow Cards6

1Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–3 Vfl Bochum

Vfl Bochum beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on November 1, 2020.

Goals: R. Munsy (7'), S. Novothny (21'), Danilo Soares (32'), P. Sontheimer (35'), S. Zoller (73').

Vfl Bochum controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at flyeralarm-Arena in Würzburg.

FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Vfl Bochum — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–3 Vfl Bochum