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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Vfl Bochum — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
9/9/20162. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 4Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers35%
×Draw27%
Vfl Bochum39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.23
Vfl Bochum
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 68 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.00
Vfl Bochum
1.16

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.48
Vfl Bochum
1.47

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Vfl Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Vfl Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
61%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Vfl Bochum
73%
Draw or Vfl Bochum
65%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
15%
Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
71%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
35%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
13%
Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
73%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
38%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
47%
Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.00 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vfl Bochum attack 1.16 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
35%
level
27%
Vfl Bochum scores more
39%

Vfl Bochum at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–0 Vfl Bochum

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Vfl Bochum 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on September 9, 2016.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wuerzburg.