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Vfl Bochum vs FC Nurnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
R. Tesche 83', 73'
R. Zulj 31'
M. Schäffler 29'
1/16/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 16Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Vfl Bochum51%
×Draw23%
FC Nurnberg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vfl Bochum
1.82
FC Nurnberg
1.25

Vfl Bochum creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vfl Bochum
2.01
FC Nurnberg
1.22

allows per match

Vfl Bochum
1.28
FC Nurnberg
1.63

finishing

Vfl Bochum-0.28scores less
FC Nurnberg-0.04on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

FC Nurnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw
74%
Vfl Bochum or FC Nurnberg
77%
Draw or FC Nurnberg
49%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
28%
FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
84%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
54%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
27%
FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
71%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
36%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
66%
FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.63 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 2.01 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.82

FC Nurnberg attack 1.22 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more
51%
level
23%
FC Nurnberg scores more
26%

Vfl Bochum at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
R. ZuljVfl BochumVfl Bochum · M
8.7

Match Events

29'
M. Schäffler↳ R. Hack
31'
R. Zulj↳ C. Gamboa
42'
Cristian Gamboa
67'
F. Schleusener← S. Singh
73'
R. Tesche
80'
M. Pantović← G. Holtmann
80'
A. Zreľák← T. Krauß
83'
R. Tesche
87'
S. Ganvoula← S. Zoller
87'
H. Behrens← F. Nürnberger
87'
N. Dovedan← R. Hack
89'
Johannes Geis
90'
Robert Žulj
90'
E. Mašović← H. Bockhorn
90+1'
T. Eisfeld← R. Tesche

Possession

60%Vfl

Shots

15Vfl

Pass accuracy

53%Vfl

Statistics

VflFC
Overview
60%Possession40%
15Total Shots12
5Corners2
16Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots12
6On Target3
4Off Target8
5Blocked1
7Inside Box10
8Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
496Total Passes329
384Accurate Passes227
77%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls17
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Vfl Bochum vs FC Nurnberg

Vfl Bochum beat FC Nurnberg 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 16, 2021.

Goals: M. Schäffler (29'), R. Zulj (31'), R. Tesche (73', 83').

Vfl Bochum controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.