FC Nurnberg 0–0 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

FC Nurnberg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vfl Bochum

5/30/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 29Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

FC Nurnberg51%

×Draw24%

Vfl Bochum25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NurnbergExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.15

FC Nurnberg

1.74

Vfl Bochum

1.15

FC Nurnberg creates 51% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.53

creates per match

1.29

1.01

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

FC Nurnberg

1.53

Vfl Bochum

1.29

allows per match

FC Nurnberg

1.01

Vfl Bochum

1.95

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.27scores more

Vfl Bochum-0.09on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw

75%

FC Nurnberg or Vfl Bochum

76%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

49%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

28%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

82%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

52%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

25%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

68%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

32%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

67%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 10 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.53 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vfl Bochum attack 1.29 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more

51%

level

24%

Vfl Bochum scores more

25%

FC Nurnberg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

G. Margreitter

FC Nurnberg · D

7.3

Match Events

9'

A. Losilla

29'

M. Leitsch

46'

G. Margreitter← K. Mavropanos

57'

M. Wintzheimer← S. Ganvoula

60'

M. Ishak

60'

M. Frey← M. Ishak

69'

A. Zreľák← H. Behrens

69'

F. Schleusener← N. Dovedan

76'

P. Heise← T. Handwerker

76'

R. Tesche← V. Janelt

76'

T. Weilandt← J. Osei-Tutu

90+3'

T. Eisfeld← M. Pantović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCVfl

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots9

7Corners5

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots9

0On Target2

5Off Target6

7Blocked1

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

435Total Passes457

329Accurate Passes337

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2