Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Nürnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg
F. Onyeka 72' (pen)
M. A. Zoma 38'
2/20/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 23Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

VfL Bochum51%
×Draw23%
1. FC Nürnberg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Bochum
1.82
1. FC Nürnberg
1.25

VfL Bochum creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

VfL Bochum
2.01
1. FC Nürnberg
1.22

allows per match

VfL Bochum
1.28
1. FC Nürnberg
1.63

finishing

VfL Bochum-0.28scores less
1. FC Nürnberg-0.04on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

1. FC Nürnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw
74%
VfL Bochum or 1. FC Nürnberg
77%
Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg
49%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+
28%
1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals
84%
VfL Bochum 2+ goals
54%
VfL Bochum 3+ goals
27%
1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals
71%
1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals
36%
1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)
66%
1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

1. FC Nürnberg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.63 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.01 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.82

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.22 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VfL Bochum scores more
51%
level
23%
1. FC Nürnberg scores more
26%

VfL Bochum at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
M. A. Zoma1. FC Nürnberg1. FC Nürnberg · F
7.9

Match Events

17'
O. Olsen← L. Morgalla
23'
Maximilian Wittek
25'
Adam Markhiev
38'
M. A. Zoma↳ T. Baack
43'
Berkay Yılmaz
45+2'
Philipp HofmannPenalty cancelled
54'
F. O. Becker← R. Nzingoula
63'
M. Kwarteng← F. Alfa-Ruprecht
72'
F. OnyekaPenalty
81'
N. Maboulou← M. A. Zoma
82'
P. Scobel← A. Grimaldi
83'
M. Rakneberg← C. Lenz
83'
M. Bero← M. Wittek
87'
Luka Lochoshvili

Possession

53%VfL

Shots

8VfL

Pass accuracy

52%VfL

Statistics

VfL1.
Overview
53%Possession47%
8Total Shots9
1.50Expected Goals (xG)1.17
3Corners3
13Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots9
3On Target4
2Off Target4
3Blocked1
8Inside Box9
0Outside Box0
Passing
53%Possession47%
470Total Passes427
391Accurate Passes335
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
0.21Goals Prevented0.21
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides3

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Nürnberg

VfL Bochum and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 20, 2026.

Goals: M. A. Zoma (38'), F. Onyeka (72' pen).

VfL Bochum controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.