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Vfl Bochum vs 1. FC Köln — Bundesliga 2026

Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
T. Asano 70'
G. Holtmann 25'
A. Modeste 45'
T. Hübers 36'
1/22/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 20Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Vfl Bochum45%
×Draw23%
1. FC Köln32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vfl Bochum
1.74
1. FC Köln
1.42

Vfl Bochum creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vfl Bochum
1.51
1. FC Köln
1.35

allows per match

Vfl Bochum
1.49
1. FC Köln
1.97

finishing

Vfl Bochum+0.07on par
1. FC Köln-0.35scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

1. FC Köln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw
68%
Vfl Bochum or 1. FC Köln
77%
Draw or 1. FC Köln
55%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
24%
1. FC Köln wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
82%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
52%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
25%
1. FC Köln 1+ goals
76%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
41%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
59%
1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

1. FC Köln away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.97 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 1.51 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.74

1. FC Köln attack 1.35 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more
45%
level
23%
1. FC Köln scores more
32%

Vfl Bochum at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
T. Hübers1. FC Köln1. FC Köln · D
7.7

Match Events

25'
G. Holtmann↳ J. Locadia
36'
T. Hübers
45'
A. Modeste↳ F. Kainz
56'
S. Polter← J. Locadia
60'
Jonas Hector
61'
J. Horn← O. Duda
61'
J. Thielmann← L. Schaub
65'
C. Gamboa← K. Stafylidis
65'
T. Asano← M. Pantović
65'
M. Uth← D. Ljubičić
70'
T. Asano↳ S. Polter
80'
K. Ehizibue← B. Schmitz
80'
K. Schindler← F. Kainz
82'
P. Osterhage← E. Rexhbeçaj
82'
C. Antwi-Adjei← G. Holtmann
85'
Jannes Horn
90+2'
Mark Uth

Possession

54%Vfl

Shots

17Vfl

Pass accuracy

53%Vfl

Statistics

Vfl1.
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots8
1Corners5
11Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots8
7On Target3
8Off Target4
2Blocked1
11Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
467Total Passes387
368Accurate Passes276
79%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls12
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Vfl Bochum vs 1. FC Köln

Vfl Bochum and 1. FC Köln drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on January 22, 2022.

Goals: G. Holtmann (25'), T. Hübers (36'), A. Modeste (45'), T. Asano (70').

Vfl Bochum controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.