1. FC Köln 0–2 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

1. FC Köln

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vfl Bochum

E. Mašović 76'

K. Stöger 9' (pen)

3/10/2023

Bundesliga · Round 24RheinEnergieStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

1. FC Köln45%

×Draw25%

Vfl Bochum31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KölnExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.27

1. FC Köln

1.58

Vfl Bochum

1.27

1. FC Köln creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 10 away

1.49

creates per match

1.12

1.43

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

1. FC Köln

1.49

Vfl Bochum

1.12

allows per match

1. FC Köln

1.43

Vfl Bochum

1.67

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

1. FC Köln-0.05on par

Vfl Bochum-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw

69%

1. FC Köln or Vfl Bochum

75%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

55%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

23%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

79%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

47%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

21%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

72%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

36%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

59%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 27 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 1.49 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vfl Bochum attack 1.12 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

1. FC Köln scores more

45%

level

25%

Vfl Bochum scores more

31%

1. FC Köln at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

E. Mašović

Vfl Bochum · D

8.3

Match Events

9'

K. StögerPenalty

29'

Philipp Hofmann

46'

D. Heintz← Danilo Soares

49'

Takuma Asano

66'

Jonas Hector

67'

D. Huseinbašić← D. Ljubičić

67'

S. Tigges← D. Selke

71'

S. Janko← K. Stafylidis

76'

E. Mašović↳ T. Asano

77'

M. Olesen← E. Martel

77'

T. Lemperle← F. Kainz

78'

S. Adamyan← L. Maina

81'

P. Kunde← T. Asano

82'

Benno Schmitz

82'

M. Broschinski← P. Osterhage

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.Vfl

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots9

0.74Expected Goals (xG)1.41

10Corners1

9Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots9

5On Target3

4Off Target2

2Blocked4

8Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

483Total Passes298

369Accurate Passes190

76%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1