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1. FC Köln vs Vfl Bochum — Bundesliga 2026

1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
T. Lemperle 90+1'
L. Schaub 82'
S. Zoller 90+4'
8/28/2021BundesligaBundesliga · Round 3RheinEnergieStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

1. FC Köln45%
×Draw25%
Vfl Bochum31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Köln
1.58
Vfl Bochum
1.27

1. FC Köln creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 10 away

creates per match

1. FC Köln
1.49
Vfl Bochum
1.12

allows per match

1. FC Köln
1.43
Vfl Bochum
1.67

finishing

1. FC Köln-0.05on par
Vfl Bochum-0.52scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Vfl Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw
69%
1. FC Köln or Vfl Bochum
75%
Draw or Vfl Bochum
55%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+
23%
Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals
79%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
47%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
21%
Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
72%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
36%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
59%
Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 27 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 1.49 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vfl Bochum attack 1.12 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

1. FC Köln scores more
45%
level
25%
Vfl Bochum scores more
31%

1. FC Köln at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
F. Kainz1. FC Köln1. FC Köln · M
8.7

Match Events

16'
Dejan LjubičićGoal confirmed
16'
Dejan LjubičićGoal confirmed
27'
Jorge Mere
38'
Ondrej Duda
46'
L. Kilian← Jorge Meré
55'
Simon Zoller
71'
T. Lemperle← S. Andersson
71'
C. Antwi-Adjei← G. Holtmann
78'
L. Schaub← D. Ljubičić
78'
E. Löwen← M. Pantović
82'
L. Schaub↳ F. Kainz
84'
S. Ganvoula← H. Bockhorn
88'
S. Özcan← O. Duda
88'
T. Ostrák← F. Kainz
90+1'
T. Lemperle↳ T. Ostrák
90+4'
S. Zoller↳ C. Antwi-Adjei

Possession

71%1.

Shots

221.

Pass accuracy

59%1.

Statistics

1.Vfl
Overview
71%Possession29%
22Total Shots11
5Corners5
11Fouls21
Shots
22Total Shots11
5On Target1
13Off Target5
4Blocked5
13Inside Box8
9Outside Box3
Passing
71%Possession29%
470Total Passes201
400Accurate Passes117
85%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls21
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln 2–1 Vfl Bochum

1. FC Köln beat Vfl Bochum 2-1 in Bundesliga on August 28, 2021.

Goals: L. Schaub (82'), T. Lemperle (90+1'), S. Zoller (90+4').

1. FC Köln controlled possession (71%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at RheinEnergieStadion in Köln.