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VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund — DFB Pokal 2018

VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgartadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
12/6/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16MHP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

VfB Stuttgart32%
×Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfB Stuttgart
1.35
Borussia Dortmund
1.64

Borussia Dortmund creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart
1.90
Borussia Dortmund
2.38

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart
0.90
Borussia Dortmund
0.81

finishing

VfB Stuttgart+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

Borussia Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw
56%
VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund
76%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund
68%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+
14%
Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals
74%
VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
39%
VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals
15%
Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
81%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
49%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)
42%
Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.90 + Borussia Dortmund defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Borussia Dortmund attack 2.38 + VfB Stuttgart defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more
32%
level
24%
Borussia Dortmund scores more
44%

Borussia Dortmund at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 in DFB Pokal on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at MHP Arena in Stuttgart.