Borussia Dortmund 5–0 VfB Stuttgart: Result & Stats

Borussia Dortmund

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

VfB Stuttgart

10/22/2022

Bundesliga · Round 11SIGNAL IDUNA PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Borussia Dortmund53%

×Draw22%

VfB Stuttgart26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia DortmundExpected goals in this matchVfB Stuttgart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.36

Borussia Dortmund

2.03

VfB Stuttgart

1.36

Borussia Dortmund creates 49% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

2.22

creates per match

1.56

1.17

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund

2.22

VfB Stuttgart

1.56

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund

1.17

VfB Stuttgart

1.84

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.77scores more than expected

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.13scores more

VfB Stuttgart+0.77scores more

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

VfB Stuttgart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw

74%

Borussia Dortmund or VfB Stuttgart

78%

Draw or VfB Stuttgart

47%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

31%

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

87%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

60%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

33%

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

74%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

39%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

67%

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

VfB Stuttgart away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.84 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 2.22 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.03

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.56 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more

53%

level

22%

VfB Stuttgart scores more

26%

Borussia Dortmund at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff